Nate Silver of the NYT says Rick Santorum’s surge in Iowa is real

NATE SILVER-NEW YORK TIMES: The extent to which Rick Santorum has gained in Iowa polling is not entirely clear. Although two polls have him with 16 percent of the vote, two others that were in the field at the same time have him at 10 and 11 percent, respectively.

Nevertheless, Mr. Santorum can make the most credible claim of any candidate about having momentum in the state. Our forecast model actually tries to quantify momentum by looking at the trajectory of each candidate’s polling and assigns him a small bonus or penalty based upon it. Right now, Mr. Santorum is benefiting from that adjustment, while other candidates like Newt Gingrich and Michele Bachmann are being harmed by it.

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