SOURCE: Real Clear Politics

It looks like Rick Santorum has regained momentum after Mitt Romney took the lead last week.  Santorum is weathering the storm of Romney’s avalanche of nothing but negative ads. Romney leads heavily among those who have already voted, Rick among those who have not yet voted.

Last week Rick was losing support among Tea Partiers and evangelical Christians as Romney’s attack ads caused some to question Santorum’s conservatism.

Imagine that: liberal RINO Mitt attacking Rick for not being conservative enough. But Rick regained the trust of conservatives and evangelicals over the weekend with his solid performances on the Sunday talk shows. Conservatives are moving quickly back into Rick’s camp.

I think Rick might just pull this out. Romney has no message. All he can do his attack with his huge money advantage.

What’s refreshing is the negative ads from Mitt don’t seem to be working as well this time, as they did against Newt. It looks like Rick has staying power with conservatives. We know who the conservative is and who the liberal is in this race.

If Mitt manages to squeak out a narrow victory in his home state against an under-funded candidate in Rick Santorum, that will still be a devastating defeat for Mitt. Delegates in Michigan are awarded by Congressional district.  Whatever the final vote tally, both candidates will likely roughly split the delegates in Michigan.  Romney will carry the suburbs of Detroit. Rick will win everything else.

But also remember what happened in Colorado. Mitt had a big polling advantage there , but Rick ended up winning the state by 6 points. No one gave Rick any chance at all in Colorado. Rick also won by much bigger margins than the polls anticipated in Missouri and Minnesota. So I have a feeling the polls might be under-reporting Rick’s true strength. There seems to be a hidden Santorum vote out there.

I think we just might see Santorum, once again, produce results 10 points better than he’s now polling. He might even make it close in Arizona.

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