Archive for the ‘Paul Ryan’ Category
Just looking at polling that has been done since the Ryan-Biden debate, it’s now clear that Joe Biden’s bizarre debate performance has contributed to Romney and Ryan widening their lead in the polls.
A new national poll by the leftist Daily Kos and Public Policy Polling now shows Romney leading Obama by four points nationally.
A Gallup/USA TODAY poll of the swing states has Romney-Ryan leading by five points.
Gallup’s daily tracking poll (different than the Gallup/USA Today poll) now has Romney’s lead ballooning to a seemingly insurmountable 4 points. This is Romney’s biggest lead ever in that poll.
Scott Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll has Romney-Ryan leading by two — up one point from before Biden’s disastrous debate performance, where Biden spent the entire debate laughing uncontrollably, smirking, making faces, and non-stop interrupting of both Ryan and the moderator.
The Real Clear Politics average of polls now has Obama’s reelect number at 47.0.
It’s almost impossible for a sitting President to crawl his way back to 50 percent from there. And Gallup now puts his reelect number at an even more dismal 46 percent.
Remember, undecideds always break 75-80 percent against the incumbent in close elections in the close days.
Democrats are now in full panic mode. To see this, just turn on MSNBC for about a minute.
Biden’s debate performance was so bizarre, so disturbing and unsettling to viewers that the esteemed psychiatrist Dr. Keith Ablow believes Biden is showing signs of dementia.
See Dr. Ablow’s interview below:
Dr. Ablow believes Biden showed signs of dementia during his debate with Ryan, citing Biden’s maniacal uncontrolled laughter throughout the debate, even during times when possible nuclear war with Iran was the topic of discussion.
Biden thought that was just hilarious.
At a minimum, Ablow says, President Obama should order a CAT scan and complete neurological exam for Biden.
Dr. Ablow has impeccable qualifications to make this assessment.
He graduated from Brown University in 1983, magna cum laude, with a Bachelor of Science degree in neurosciences. He received his Doctor of Medicine degree from Johns Hopkins Medical School in 1987, and completed his psychiatry residency at the Tufts-New England Medical Center.
So he knows what he’s talking about.
In case you missed Biden’s eyebrow-raising display, here are some clips . . .
Anyone who saw Biden’s debate performance must shudder to think this man is one heartbeat from being President.
How can I say this?
REASON #1: All you have to do is look at President Obama’s reelect number.
Today, in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Obama’s reelect number stands at 46.0 percent in his head-to-head race with Romney.
Romney is now at 47.3 percent — one full point ahead of Obama.
But what’s important right now is Obama’s reelect number.
Anytime a sitting President’s reelect number drops under 50 percent, he’s in trouble.
When it falls below 48 percent, it becomes very difficult (nearly impossible) for an incumbent President to claw his way back to 50 percent.
Because the President is the known quantity. And right now only 46.3 percent of likely voters think he deserves another term.
After four years in office, how on earth will he persuade 3.7 percent of the electorate to change their mind and vote for his reelection?
Obama’s reelect number has been at 46-48 percent all year. Hasn’t budged much.
What’s changing is Romney’s rising elect number, as voters get to know him better.
Obama’s only hope was to demonize Romney.
But that can’t succeed anymore.
Team Obama spent $300 million doing just that, with an avalanche of negative ads.
Both Romney and Ryan were able to undo all these negative ads with their debate performances — watched by a combined 125 million Americans.
With their debate performances, they were able to answer the #1 question in the minds of undecided voters: Are these two men plausible alternatives to Obama and Biden?
Both Romney and Ryan showed themselves to be far more than plausible alternatives.
By all accounts, Romney wiped the floor with Obama in the first debate, while Biden exhibited signs of mental instability with his incessant laughing, snickering, eye-rolling, and guffawing during Paul Ryan’s cogent presentation and answers to questions.
Biden demonstrated with his bizarre, mentally unstable debate performance that he’s completely unfit to be one heartbeat away from the Presidency.
So Romney just needs to perform acceptably in the next two debates. He will.
REASON #2: Obama only won Ohio with 51.2 percent of the vote in 2008
And this was when Obama could do no wrong, and nothing was going well for McCain.
We had just suffered a massive financial collapse under the watch of George W. Bush, who also was unable to find any WMDs in Iraq. Bush ended his Presidency as among the most unpopular Presidents in history.
Yet, Obama was still only able to win 51.2 percent of the vote in Ohio in 2008.
Does anyone seriously believe Obama will get anywhere near the 51.2 percent of the vote in got in 2008 — when he was at the very peak of his popularity?
The five big battleground states to watch are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado.
The respected Suffolk University Polling Research Center of Massachusetts has already pulled its polling research team out of Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina (to focus elsewhere) because they feel those states have already been won by Romney (this, even before Romney’s debate trouncing of Obama).
Romney now has also established a lead in Colorado.
Real Clear Politics has now moved Colorado into the Romney column.
Most polls still give Obama a narrow lead in Ohio of one or two points. But most of these polls are old.
Obama’s only hope at this point is to somehow pull out a win in Ohio. He then would have a chance to win an Electoral College vote victory even while losing the popular vote across the country.
By the way, Romney can still win an Electoral College victory without Ohio. But that math becomes more complicated. He would have to win Wisconsin — which is entirely doable with Paul Ryan (from Wisconsin) on the ticket. Polls show Romney-Ryan just two points behind in the usually blue badger state.
But if Romney wins Ohio, this election is over.
Now let’s look again at why it will be so tough for Obama to win Ohio when Romney is leading Obama in national polls.
In 2008, McCain performed three points better in Ohio than he performed across the rest of the country — losing to Obama by 4 percent in Ohio while losing by 7 nationwide.
In 2000, we saw a similar gap between the Ohio vote and the national vote. George W. Bush won Ohio over Al Gore by a 3.3 percent margin, while Al Gore actually won the popular vote nationally by half a percent.
So Ohio tends to vote more conservative than America as a whole — which is why Ohio is always the key state for Republicans to win in Presidential election years.
If the Republican candidate can’t win Ohio, he can’t expect to win the election . . . because Ohio is slightly more conservative than America is as a whole.
It’s a bellwether state — but it’s a bellwether state that tips slightly in favor of Republicans.
There’s no reason to believe Ohio will behave any differently this year. If Romney wins nationally, he’ll win Ohio by a slightly wider margin than his national total.
REASON #3: The giant enthusiasm gap between the Republicans and Democrats.
This is always a key number predicting election outcomes.
Scott Rasmussen puts the enthusiasm gap at +11 to +14 in favor of the GOP. Other polls show about the same number.
This is critical for gauging likely voter turnout.
Does anyone believe black and young voters (the core of Obama’s base in 2008) will turn out for Obama in the same numbers they did four years ago?
Young (under age 30) voters still favor Obama over Romney, but by a deminishing margin. And there is zero enthusiasm this time among young pro-Obama voters. Look for many of them to stay home on Election Day. And the unemployment rate among black voters is now 15%. They will still vote for Obama. But how many will show up?
REASON #4: The Independent vote is breaking heavily against Obama.
Romney leads by 12 points among Independents in most polls, by 20 points in some polls.
It’s almost impossible for Obama to swim against this tide.
If you assume a roughly equal turnout of Republicans and Democrats (which is what most pollsters assume), Romney wins by winning the Independents. Even if you give Democrats a +3 percent turnout advantage over Republicans (unlikely), Romney’s big lead among Independents gives him the election.
The bottom line . . .
Debates don’t change the fundamentals of Presidential elections. Never have.
Debates perhaps can turn a few votes in super-close elections (Kennedy-Nixon in 1960 — with Nixon visibly sweating; Bush-Gore in 2000 — with Gore sighing excessively).
But this election is not that close.
The media polls have skewed in Obama’s favor in part because of the pro-Obama bias of most media polls — also because pollsters tend to deliver the results those paying them are looking for.
So it looked like Obama was winning.
But now that the election is only three weeks away, these pollsters have their reputations to protect. So you are seeing more accuracy today in the polls than we saw two weeks ago.
In addition, the Gallup poll has shifted its metric from measuring registered voters to “likely voters.”
Republicans always score 3-4 points better among likely voters than registered voters — and better still among actual voters.
The closer you get to measuring actual voters, the better Republicans do.
In addition, Romney was unknown to many low-information voters before the debate.
The more voters see Romney, the more they become comfortable with the idea of Romney as President.
So the upcoming debates will be fun to watch. The debates will provide good fodder for the pundits.
Pundits have to make a living, too, so need to talk about something every day.
But the debates won’t matter much — except possibly to add to Romney’s margin of victory by giving the undecideds even more confidence that the country will be in good hands with Romney.
Of course, if Obama lays another egg on the stage, we’re looking at a blowout election.
So put this in the bank.
A Romney-Ryan victory is now baked in stone (barring something completely unexpected). The only question now is the margin of Romney’s victory.
My expectation is that this election won’t be close.
Romney will win by 7 to 10 points as the undecided voters break heavily against the incumbent President in the final few days before the Election, as they always do.
The guffawing, laughing, grimacing, interrupting, rude Joe Biden went over like a lead balloon with the audience in his debate last night with Paul Ryan.
48 percent said Ryan won the debate. 44 thought Biden won.
63 percent thought Ryan won. Just 31 percent thought Biden won.
56 percent thought Ryan won. 36% thought Biden won.
Here’s a great video the RNC put out on Biden’s incessant laughing, snickering and sneering . . .
This Biden character certainly is a rude, classless buffoon.
This is how people act when they are out of ideas and have no answers.
He, frankly, came off last night as deeply mentally disturbed.
For some reason, Biden thinks it’s funny that Iran is four years closer to having nuclear bombs.
Biden thinks it’s hilarious that we have 23 million Americans struggling to find work.
Biden just can’t contain his laughter over the fact that the median household in America earns $5,000 less per year than in January of 2009.
Biden thinks it’s a hoot that we now have 40 percent more Americans on Food Stamps than we had on Obama’s first day in office.
Biden thinks it’s a scream that one in six Americans are now in poverty.
Biden is in stitches over the fact that the price of a gallon of gasoline has more than doubled under his watch.
And he’s having a rollicking good time over the fact that a U.S. Ambassador and three other Americans were murdered by terrorists in Libya because the Obama White House rejected the U.S. Ambassador’s desperate pleas for more security.
Is Biden some kind of sadist?
This is how sociopaths behave — laughing non-stop at the human misery he’s helping to cause all across America.
Or it’s possible Biden is entering the early stages of Alzheimer’s or some other form of dementia — which would also explain his bizarre, inappropriate behavior.
What America witnessed last night was a seriously mentally ill person — who just happens to be Vice President of the United States.
President Obama needs to get to the bottom of what’s wrong with his Vice President.
Obama should order a complete neurological exam for Biden.