Archive for the ‘Political Analysis’ Category
The GOP has received a majority of the popular vote in a national election just once since 1988.
Barack Obama won re-election convincingly by campaigning on higher taxes, more spending, and a bigger Welfare Entitlement State.
It’s clear that’s what America wants, at least for now.
And with changing demographics, it looks like America will continue its current slide toward European-style Socialism, or worse.
Also, the gender gap is widening dramatically. Mitt Romney got just 41 percent of the female vote. Ouch!
More women than men vote in elections, so that pretty well spells doom for the GOP, if this continues.
The Democrat Presidential candidate is now getting 93-95 percent of the black vote, 73 percent of the Hispanic vote, and 72 percent of the Asian vote.
Whites are voting GOP, but whites are a shrinking share of the electorate — soon won’t even be half the electorate.
88 percent of Romney’s voters were white. So not much room for growth there.
The GOP has become the party of white males.
That’s not a formula for political success.
The question is: Can we prevent America from becoming Greece, or worse?
Can America be saved at all?
Can capitalism and the spirit of enterprise ever again be revived in America?
I would argue yes, but not by the Republican Party.
The GOP brand is dead. It can’t be fixed with minority voters and most women.
But economic conditions in America will likely have to get a whole lot worse before we can see a rebirth of capitalism and the American spirit of enterprise, or even a rebirth of a desire for freedom.
This brings me to my big point. . ..
Perhaps we are making a mistake by fighting Obama and the Democrats.
Perhaps we should just let them do whatever they want to do . . . and really see how their ideas work out.
Perhaps the Republican Party should pull a John Galt and just quit, go away.
It’s not as if the GOP in Congress is putting up much resistance anyway.
It’s the “frog in boiling water” argument.
If you put a frog in tepid water and turn up the heat slowly, the frog will just sit there, not notice the rising heat, and eventually cook to death.
That’s what’s happening to America now. We’re inching toward Socialism a few degrees at a time, but Americans aren’t really noticing what’s happening.
But if you throw the frog in hot water, he’ll notice he’s in big trouble and jump out.
If we allow Obama and the Democrats to just do whatever it is they want to do, one of two things will likely happen:
POSSIBILITY #1: America will go full-blown Socialism. Americans will experience the boiling water, and want to jump out of that pot . . . or not. But at least we’ll know the answer one way or the other, quickly.
I suspect that once Americans really experience full-blown Socialism, they’ll want out.
This has happened throughout the Communist world.
Communist China is now more capitalist than we are. As a result, China’s GDP is growing at a 10 percent rate every year, compared to America’s pathetic two percent per year.
Even hardcore Communist Cuba is slashing its public sector work force and trying to spur private sector growth. Private sector jobs in Cuba have doubled during the past two years.
Fidel Castro has been complaining in his speeches that Cuba has become a place where too many people live off the dole. I especially love this statement issued by the Cuban government with its announcement that it was cutting its government work force as a way to push people into the private sector:
Our state cannot and should not continue maintaining companies, productive entities, services and budgeted sectors with bloated payrolls (and) losses that hurt the economy, are counterproductive, and form bad work habits.”
Sounds like something Milton Friedman would say. So even Fidel Castro can learn from failure.
But while the Communist world is trying to revive the “Goose that Lays the Golden Eggs” (Capitalism), America is moving in the opposite direction, toward Socialism.
So it’s quite possible Americans will need to find out what Socialism is really like before they reject it, like what’s happening in Cuba.
Or . . . POSSIBILITY #2: The Democrats will have to become a responsible governing party.
My guess is POSSIBILITY #2 is the more likely scenario of what would occur if the GOP just quit and went away — John Galt-style.
The Democrats would be forced by economic and fiscal reality to become a responsible party — instead of just the party that says “no” to everything the GOP proposes.
It’s the “Nixon goes to China” argument.
George McGovern, if he had been President instead of Nixon , could not have undertaken the diplomatic opening with Maoist China. It would have been seen as appeasement, or even as taking America down the road toward Communism.
It required the anti-Communist Richard Nixon to hold out a olive branch to China, to even create a quasi-alliance with China against the Soviet Union — thus helping to accelerate China’s split with the Soviet Union that contributed ultimately to the collapse of the Soviet Empire.
Something like this is needed if we’re to have any hope of bringing any kind of fiscal sanity to the welfare and Entitlement State.
Democrats will have to be the ones to tame the Entitlement State.
Democrats will have to be the ones who raise the retirement age to 70 for receiving Social Security and Medicare, and then indexing the retirement age to life expectancy.
Everyone seems to know and think that’s needed. But it won’t happen if Republicans propose it.
The Democrats have, very effectively, made a living scaring seniors about Republicans wanting to cut their Social Security and Medicare benefits.
Republicans then respond by increasing spending even more than what the Democrats are proposing, to show how compassionate we are (i.e. George W. Bush who added an enormous new entitlement with Medicare Part D).
So let’s make the out-of-control entitlements and $16.4 TRILLION national debt the Democrats’ problem to deal with.
The GOP brand is ruined anyway. I don’t think the GOP brand can be fixed with minorities.
How can today’s GOP move from getting 5 percent of the black vote to something closer to 40 percent?
ANSWER: It can’t.
The same is true with Hispanics.
How does the GOP move from getting 27 percent of the Hispanic vote to 40 percent?
ANSWER: Very difficult, probably impossible.
The GOP can’t even win the Asian vote — the most industrious conservative pro-family, pro-free enterprise voting bloc in America.
If anyone should be voting GOP, it should be Asians. But Romney was only able to get 28 percent of the Asian vote.
As someone who makes his living as a marketing consultant, I know how difficult it is to change a brand.
Actually, it’s impossible. It’s one of those iron laws of marketing.
A brand is the image people have in their minds of a product or company.
Coca-Cola makes many different drinks and products. But there is only one drink you think of when you think of Coca-Cola.
And even if you could somehow change the brand of the GOP as the white male party, it would still be very difficult to change people’s voting (buying) habits — anther iron law of marketing.
I’ve used Crest tooth paste all my life. I’m sure there are many other good tooth pastes out there. But I’m used to Crest. I’d have to be given a very good reason to change tooth pastes.
So it will be very difficult (almost impossible) to change the brand of the GOP (as the white male party) and people’s voting habits.
That’s a project that would take at least 20 or 30 years, if it can be done at all.
Are voters rejecting the message or the messenger?
I suspect it’s more the messenger — the GOP.
But I’m really not sure.
It’s certainly possible Americans no longer value freedom, the Constitution, opportunity, or the old American Dream.
It’s quite possible Americans just want to be taken care of by an enormous Nanny State — really don’t want opportunity at all, instead want to be told what to do by government bureaucrats and love the ominpresent surveilance state.
It’s possible that Americans don’t care if they saddle their children and grandchildren with trillions of dollars of debt that can never be paid off. It’s possible what Americans really want is economic collapse.
It’s quite possible that what Americans really want is to be more like France, Spain, or Greece (where the unemployment rate is 26 percent).
The GOP needs to go away so we can find out if that’s the future America really wants.
Instead, what we might need are two Democrat parties — responsible JFK-style Democrats (we can come up with a name for this new party) vs the Obama-style full-blown Socialists.
My father (a former Nixon and Reagan speechwriter and senior editor for William F. Buckley, Jr’s NATIONAL REVIEW magazine) voted for JFK in 1960 over Nixon because he thought JFK was more hardline anti-Communist and conservative than Nixon.
It’s possible conservatives are making a strategic mistake trying to take over the Republican Party — which minorities see as the
party of Thurston Howell, III.
Perhaps we should instead try to take over the Democratic Party — split the Democratic Party, create two Democratic Parties — a sane Democratic Party vs the insane San Francisco Democrats..
This might be easier than starting a new political party – perhaps called the Declaration of Independence Party.
That document does a great job of describing what we stand for. All the arguments we were making against the British government in 1776 pretty well apply to our federal government today.
Come to think of it . . .
There’s nothing in the Constitution that requires two major political parties — or political parties at all.
Why not just have one big primary in each state and then a run-off election between the top two vote getters?
This is how Louisiana conducts its elections.
There’s a lot to be said for not having official political parties, with favored treatment in the law.
Of course, we must face the possibility that America really is over and the spirit of capitalism and free-enterprise that made America the most prosperous nation in history will never return.
If so, let’s find out now rather than later.
We can call that POSSIBILITY #3.
Under all these scenarios and possibilities, one thing appears to be clear.
The GOP should disband and disappear — go the way of the Whigs. Then let’s see what happens.
Because, whatever the answer is, it’s clear the GOP is not it.
Newt Gingrich has taken a commanding lead in Iowa, according to a new Insider Advantage poll, which has it Newt 28, Paul 13, Mitt 12.
The pundits keep saying Mitt is the front-runner, but his poll numbers continue to get worse.
But Newt has some formidable mechanical obstacles ahead of him.
He likely won’t be able to get on the ballot is some big states because he doesn’t have the organizational strength. And he doesn’t have the money required to build an organization.
As a professional marketer, I arrive at this conclusion through a scientific process of elimination
Honestly, at this point, I see no way Herman Cain fails to win the GOP nomination and then go on to defeat Barack Hussein Obama in November of 2012.
Here’s my reasoning. Tell me if you agree or disagree.
Mitt Romney is not a conservative. He’s trying to win the nomination among GOP primary voters who are 80 percent bedrock conservatives.
This is illustrated by the fact that Romney can’t get above 20 percent in any poll of likely Republican primary voters — much less caucus goers (such as in Iowa).
The conservative vote right now has split up among several candidates: Cain, Perry, Paul, Bachmann, Gingrich, Santorum.
Ultimately, this vote will coalesce around one candidate. Right now this vote is gravitating at lightening speed toward Herman Cain.
At first glance, conservatives liked Rick Perry. He’s conservative on most things and is governor of America’s second largest state.
But after three brain-damaged debate performance and the revelation that Perry strongly backs taxpayer subsidies (to the tune of $20,000 per year per illegal alien) so illegal aliens can attend college, Perry has been sinking in the polls like a lead balloon.
He’s now at around 8 percent in some polls of Republican primary voters.
So stick a fork in Perry. He’s done.
For a variety of reasons, the other GOP candidates have not caught on.
Some like Gingrich. Some like Bachmann. Some like Santorum. Some like Paul.
But Cain is the one who has caught on.
Starting with the first debate, I noticed that Cain was scoring very well with the Frank Luntz focus groups.
Those are the groups of GOP primary voters who Luntz has watch the debates.
He gauges their reaction to what the candidates are saying.
Even when Cain was at 3 percent support, the Frank Luntz focus groups always had super-favorable reactions to what he was saying.
They liked his straight-forward speaking style. They liked the fact that he had an actual economic plan.
Even when I thought Cain had not performed especially well, Frank Luntz’s focus groups gave him soaring grades.
Whatever it was, they loved him.
Most arrived at the debate favoring some other candidate — perhaps Perry or Bachmann — but left with a highly favorable opinion of Herman Cain.
This was a consistent pattern for all three debates.
That’s why I always believed that if Herman Cain could ever somehow get voters to notice him, he could very easily end up winning the GOP nomination.
The big problem for Cain was the media, even the conservative media, such as FOX.
The media did not see him as a viable first tier candidate because he has never held elective office. So the media did not give him much coverage.
Also, Herman Cain is certainly not the candidate of the GOP Establishment, which means Herman Cain is not the candidate of FOX.
Karl Rove was dissing Cain’s 9-9-9 tax plan today on Hannity. His critique is that a nine percent federal sales tax would hurt certain sectors of the American economy. Then Rove said he likes the Fair Tax, which would replace the income taxes with a much larger federal sales tax than what Herman Cain proposes.
And, by the way, Cain favors that Fair Tax. He says his 9-9-9 plan is a transition to the Fair Tax.
So I’m not quite sure what Karl Rove’s complaint is here — except that perhaps he favors Romney.
But Rove and the GOP Establishment don’t seem to hate Herman Cain either — not in the same way that they hate Michele Bachman.
And they see the advantage in having a credible black conservative candidate.
It’s not that the GOP Establishment want Herman Cain. They don’t. But they really have no choice — not with Mitt Romney not able to get above 20 percent of the GOP primary electorate in any poll.
Eventually, the GOP battle for the nomination will come down to two candidates: Romney and whoever the conservative is.
The front-runner for the conservatives is now Herman Cain who, like Secretariet, is pulling away from the rest of the conservative field.
Faced with a choice: RINO Romney or conservative Herman Cain, current supporters of Perry, Bachmann, Santorum, and Paul will go for Cain. Gingrich’s supporters will likely split between Romney and Cain.
So Cain will win the nomination over Romney by getting about two-thirds of the GOP primary vote.
So now onto the general election.
If Herman Cain can get 25 percent of the black vote, Obama is done.
That’s just a mathematical fact.
Obama only got 43 percent of the white vote in 2008. So drop that down to 30 percent this time around.
If Cain picks Marco Rubio as his running-mate, that ticket could easily get 50 percent of the Hispanic vote.
So then this suddenly becomes an election landslide of historic proportions — far bigger than LBJ v Goldwater, Nixon v McGovern, Reagan v. Mondale.
Herman Cain is already leading Obama in a head-to-head race 43-to-41 percent.
So that leaves 16 percent of the electorate that’s undecided.
The undecided vote always breaks against the incumbent — the known quantity.
It’s like a marriage. If you are unsure whether you will be married to your spouse a year from now, that’s not a good sign for your marriage.
If only 41 percent say they want a sitting President reelected, that’s a really bad sign for the President.
So if Herman Cain wins the GOP nomination (which seems a near-certainty at this point for all the reasons stated above), he should be able to defeat a President who, by every metric we use to measure performance, has failed.
And the economy is getting worse, not better.
For all these reasons, I see little way Romney or Obama can stop Herman Cain.
Some Relevant Recent Polling Data . . .
WALL STREET JOURNAL: It’s Time to Take Herman Cain Seriously
NEW POLL: Cain 28, Perry 18, Romney 17, Paul 11 (among GOP primary voters)
Herman Cain wins FLA straw poll with 37% — Perry 15%, Romney 14%, Santorum 11%, Ron Paul 10%
How can Republicans start winning 25 to 35 percent of the black vote?
There’s only one way. Run good black candidates — such as, well, Herman Cain.
If Cain is even able to get 20 or 25 percent of the black vote in 2012 instead of the 5 percent McCain garnered in 2008, this effectively destroys the Democratic Party.
For the Democrats to win national elections, they must win 90 percent of the black vote.
How can Republicans win half or even a majority of the Hispanic vote?
There’s only one way. Run good Hispanic candidates — such as Marco Rubio.
So then the clear winning ticket for the GOP in 2012 is Cain-Rubio.
There’s no reason Hispanics should not be voting conservative. Most Hispanics are culturally conservative. They’re Catholic, pro-life, pro-family and hard-working.
Many churchgoing blacks are pro-life and conservative culturally. I don’t know many blacks who are fans of gay marriage. Many also own small-businesses and should be voting conservative. No group of people has been hurt more by Obamanomics than black America. The unemployment rate among black Americans is now over 16 percent. Many blacks will be open to hearing some new solutions — the kind of ideas Herman Cain is talking about.
But they’re not going to vote for someone who looks and sounds like Mitt Romney — the quintessential stereotype white candidate, with the quaffed hair that never moves, the whole bit.
Non-white voters are just not going to identify with Mitt.
But look what happens when the GOP runs a good Hispanic candidate — such as Susana Martinez in New Mexico. She won her race for Governor in 2010 by a solid 7 points in a state that is 50 percent Hispanic and where Democrats outnumber Republicans 50-32 percent.
That’s the formula for success right there.
The reality is: Many people prefer to vote for their own kind. It’s a tribal thing — especially when it comes to recent immigrants and minorities.
Jack Kennedy won 80 percent of the Irish and Catholic vote in 1960. He only won 38 percent of the Protestant vote. 4.5 million Protestant Democrats crossed party lines to vote for Nixon.
So there’s that tribal thing kicking in again.
It helps to be Jewish if you’re running for office in Brooklyn. Walter Mondale chose Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate in 1984 in an effort to get both the female and Italian vote.
Romney would have been fine in the 1950s. He would have fit right in with the culture. But America has changed a lot since then. America now is only 60 percent white, maybe less. So that leaves 40 percent-plus who don’t look like Mitt Romney.
The Democrats’ playbook is to try to win 70 or even 80 percent of the non-white vote by playing special interest politics, generating resentment against whites, and engaging in class war rhetoric. Obama won 95 percent of the black vote and 66 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2008. He only got 43 percent of the white vote, but still won the election by a healthy 7 percent.
There’s only one way to counter this: No more white candidates for us.
There is nothing more dangerous to the liberal coalition than a non-white conservative Republican.
They know that if Republicans start winning, say, 40 percent of the non-white vote, they’re finished as a serious political party. That’s why they will stop at nothing to destroy a conservative black leader. Look at what they did to Clarence Thomas.
MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell (who’s white) is already suggesting that Herman Cain is an Uncle Tom, and that he’s not an authentic black because Cain did not participate in the civil rights marches of the 1960s.
Cain-Rubio is the way to go in 2012.
If Rubio’s not interested in being Vice President, go with Susana Martinez. A bonus we get with Martinez is she helps with women; so we get a two-fer.
Blacks will listen to what Herman Cain has to say. Hispanics will listen to Rubio and Martinez. They won’t listen to someone who looks and sounds like Mitt Romney.
Unlike Romney, both Cain and Rubio are solid true-blue Tea Party-style conservatives. So that’s yet another bonus.
Here’s Lawrence O’Donnell’s Interview with Herman Cain Where O’Donnell Outrageously Tries to Say Cain is Not an Authentic Black American
GOP candidate up by 6 in poll. Dem doesn’t live in district. Won’t commit to living there even if he wins.
NATIONAL JOURNAL: Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week’s special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena College poll released early Friday that shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.
Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13th election are undecided.
BEN SAYS: I’m puzzled and sad to see Tim Pawlenty drop out of the race. I, myself, am excited about Bachmann. But I would have liked to see more of T-Paw. His third place finish in Iowa certainly wasn’t that bad — much better than Romney’s seventh place.
Pawlenty, in my view, had a good case to make. He’s more conservative than Romney and has executive experience. He was a successful two-term governor of a blue state. He was a bit bland. But after Obama, we could use some bland. Pawlenty is bland, but solid. Pawlenty’s problem was he was neither fish nor fowl. He was running between the establishment and the more hard right. Bachmann has brilliantly cornered the market on the Tea Party vote.
But it’s very tough to win the Presidency from the House of Representatives. When was the last time that happened?
Romney is the presumed frontrunner, though he looks like a shaky frontrunner to me. Romney is positioned as the candidate who is most capable of beating Obama. But it seems Pawlenty could have taken over that role — especially in light of Romney’s seventh place finish in the Iowa straw poll.
Romney finished behind Perry (sixth) who wasn’t even on the ballot.
Perhaps Pawlenty was worried about the entrance of Perry into the race. But we have no idea how Perry will perform or whether his super-Texas drawl well sell outside Texas. My prediction is not so well. I think Perry will underperform expectations.
I would have liked T-Paw to have stayed in the race. We’re always better off with a deep field. You never know what might happen. Other candidates can implode, leave you as the only alternative. Look for Rick Santorum to start inching up. He finished fourth in the straw poll — almost as good as Pawlenty.
Here was Pawlenty’s speech at the Ames straw poll
I thought it an excellent speech.
USA TODAY: Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty said today he is ending his campaign for the GOP presidential nomination, a day after finishing a distant third in the Iowa straw poll.
Pawlenty informed his supporters in a conference call and then announced his decision on ABC’s This Week. He finished well behind Rep. Michele Bachmann, his Minnesota rival, in the crucial Iowa presidential straw poll.
“We needed to get some lift to continue on and have a pathway forward,” Pawlenty told ABC’s Jake Tapper. “That didn’t happen so I’m announcing this morning on your show that I’m going to be ending my campaign for president.”
Pawlenty said he offered “a rational, established, credible strong record of results. …But I think the audience, so to speak, was looking for something different.”
The surprise decision by Pawlenty, who made John McCain’s short list of vice presidential picks in 2008, was first reported by Politico.
Dems face two recall elections next week. So will likely only end up with a net pick-up of one seat.
So after all the huffing and puffing, Dems are likely to have a net-gain of one Senate seat in the much ballyhooed Wisconsin Senate recall elections.
This after tens of millions of dollars spent by Big Labor. This after all those appearances in Wisconsin by Obama and leftists Hollywood celebrities. This recall election was supposed to be an example of what happens to you if you oppose Big Labor.
Interesting Data Point: According to Nate Silver of the New York Times, 52 percent of Wisconsin voters voted for the GOP, 48 percent for the Democrat. Walker won those districts 56-43 in 2010, Obama won them 53-46 in 2008.
Al Sharpton Delivers This Sobering Analysis
FLASHBACK: Watch this leftist protester literally foam at the mouth; challenges Tea Partier to boxing match
SCOTT WALKER VINDICATED: Big Labor, Dems Suffer Huge Defeat in Wisconsin Recall Election
CIVILITY FLASHBACK: Watch these Obama-style liberals boo America’s National Anthem in Madison, Wisconsin
No new civility happening in Madison, Wisconsin, as government union thugs and other assorted Obama-style leftists took to the streets to protest a peaceful Tea Party rally.
These Leftists evidently equate patriotism and the National Anthem with the Tea Party. So when the National Anthem was played, these government union protesters just couldn’t restrain themselves (even for P.R. purposes).
Like Obama, they just don’t like this country very much.
You would think these liberals would at least pretend to be patriotic, if for no other reason than to win this political battle. But they just can’t help themselves. Their true colors always show through in the frenzy of the moment. Michelle has more of these public moments of candor (P.R. slip-ups, political gaffes) than Barack because she’s not a disciplined politician.
But they’re all birds of a feather. They all believe pretty much the same thing — that the United States of America is a problem. America is an Inconvenient Truth for liberals because America has shown that freedom actually works . . . and socialism doesn’t.
JON PODHORETZ-NEW YORK POST: If Barack Obama loses next November, we’ll look back on Sunday — July 31, 2011 — as the day he became a one-termer.
He demonstrated the one key quality common to all unsuccessful leaders: Haplessness.
In the most confrontational partisan moment of his presidency, Obama ended up looking remarkably powerless. He didn’t get his way. To put it mildly.
The deal he endorsed on the debt ceiling will long be an object of debate for both right and left. There’s so much for everyone to dislike in it that people are lining up to rage against it, even
JOSH KRAUSHAAR-NATIONAL JOURNAL: President Obama’s job approval rating in the latest national polls has been in the danger zone, ranging from 42 percent (Gallup) to 47 percent (ABC News/Washington Post), with every survey showing him with higher unfavorables than favorables. Needless to say, it’s not a good place for a president to be, especially since his numbers have worsened over the past two months.
The race for president isn’t a national contest. It’s a state-by-state battle to cobble an electoral vote majority. So while the national polls are useful in gauging the president’s popularity, the more instructive numbers are those from the battlegrounds.
Those polls are even more ominous for the president: In every reputable battleground state poll conducted over the past month, Obama’s support is weak. In most of them, he trails Republican front-runner Mitt Romney. For all the talk of a closely fought 2012 election, if Obama can’t turn around his fortunes in states such as Michigan and New Hampshire, next year’s presidential election could end up being a GOP landslide.