Archive for the ‘Polls’ Category
|Michigan Republican Presidential Primary||PPP (D)||Romney 39, Santorum 37, Paul 13, Gingrich 9||Romney +2|
|Michigan Republican Presidential Primary||Mitchell/Rosetta Stone||Romney 35, Santorum 37, Paul 8, Gingrich 9||Santorum +2|
SOURCE: Real Clear Politics
It looks like Rick Santorum has regained momentum after Mitt Romney took the lead last week. Santorum is weathering the storm of Romney’s avalanche of nothing but negative ads. Romney leads heavily among those who have already voted, Rick among those who have not yet voted.
Last week Rick was losing support among Tea Partiers and evangelical Christians as Romney’s attack ads caused some to question Santorum’s conservatism.
Imagine that: liberal RINO Mitt attacking Rick for not being conservative enough. But Rick regained the trust of conservatives and evangelicals over the weekend with his solid performances on the Sunday talk shows. Conservatives are moving quickly back into Rick’s camp.
I think Rick might just pull this out. Romney has no message. All he can do his attack with his huge money advantage.
What’s refreshing is the negative ads from Mitt don’t seem to be working as well this time, as they did against Newt. It looks like Rick has staying power with conservatives. We know who the conservative is and who the liberal is in this race.
If Mitt manages to squeak out a narrow victory in his home state against an under-funded candidate in Rick Santorum, that will still be a devastating defeat for Mitt. Delegates in Michigan are awarded by Congressional district. Whatever the final vote tally, both candidates will likely roughly split the delegates in Michigan. Romney will carry the suburbs of Detroit. Rick will win everything else.
But also remember what happened in Colorado. Mitt had a big polling advantage there , but Rick ended up winning the state by 6 points. No one gave Rick any chance at all in Colorado. Rick also won by much bigger margins than the polls anticipated in Missouri and Minnesota. So I have a feeling the polls might be under-reporting Rick’s true strength. There seems to be a hidden Santorum vote out there.
I think we just might see Santorum, once again, produce results 10 points better than he’s now polling. He might even make it close in Arizona.
Rick up by 27 in Texas, up 16 in Oklahoma, up 18 in Ohio; tied with Mitt in Michigan. Mitt still up in AZ . . . by 3
Mitt’s caught up in Michigan due to his negative ad barrage against Rick
|Tuesday, February 21|
|Race/Topic (Click to Sort)||Poll||Results||Spread|
|Michigan Republican Presidential Primary||Mitchell/Rosetta Stone||Santorum 30, Romney 32, Paul 7, Gingrich 9||Romney +2|
|Georgia Republican Presidential Primary||Insider Advantage||Gingrich 26, Romney 24, Santorum 23, Paul 12||Gingrich +2|
|Monday, February 20|
SOURCE: Real Clear Politics
And Here’s What’s Happening in Texas, according to a new University of Texas poll . . .
SOURCE: Texas Tribune >>>
Rick Santorum is holding onto a 4 point lead over Mitt Romney in Michigan, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey out this morning.
Newt Gingrich has suggested that if Romney can’t win Michigan (the state he grew up in where his dad was Governor), Mitt should drop out of the race.
Mitt has rolled out an avalanche of attack ads against Rick and has an enormous money advantage. So this will be a tough state for Rick to hold. If Rick does win Michigan, Newt is probably right. Mitt should drop out. There would be no further rationale for his candidacy.
The all-important Michigan primary is next Tuesday, Feb 28.
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING: Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP’s newest national poll. He’s at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.
Part of the reason for Santorum’s surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and Gingrich. Romney’s favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31). Gingrich has fallen even further. A 44% plurality of GOP voters now hold a negative opinion of him to only 42% with a positive one. That’s a 34 point drop from 2 months ago when he was at +32 (60/28).
RASMUSSEN: The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.
Florida allows early voting, and Romney leads among those voters by 11 points. Gingrich leads by 12 among those who have not yet voted. Fourteen percent (14%) have already cast their vote.
RASMUSSEN: Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, coming off his photo finish with Mitt Romney in the Iowa caucuses, is now in second place among Republican voters in the race for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey, taken the night after the caucuses, shows Romney again in first place with support from 29% of Likely Republican Primary Voters, followed by Santorum with 21%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING: The Republican caucus in Iowa is headed for a photo finish, with the three leading contenders all within two points of each other. Ron Paul is at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%. Rounding out the field are Newt Gingrich atm14%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.
The momentum in the race is completely on Santorum’s side. He’s moved up 8 points since a PPP poll earlier in the week, while no one else has seen more than a one point gain in their support. Among voters who say they decided who to vote for in the last seven days he leads Romney 29-17 with Paul and Gingrich both at 13. Santorum’s net favorability of 60/30 makes him easily the most popular candidate in the field. No one else’s favorability exceeds 52%. He may also have more room to grow in the final 48 hours of the campaign than the other front runners: 14% of voters say he’s their second choice to 11% for Romney and only 8% for Paul.
DES MOINES REGISTER: Mitt Romney tops the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in the closing days before the Iowa caucuses, but Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are poised within striking distance.
The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.
But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.
“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer. Another sign of the race’s volatility: 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds.
Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducted the poll of 602 likely Republican caucusgoers, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In the final two days of polling, 302 likely caucusgoers were interviewed, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
Rounding out the field, in results from the full, four-day poll: former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 12 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 11 percent, and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, 7 percent.
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING: Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP’s newest poll of Iowa Republican caucus voters with 27% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Rick Perry, 6% for Rick Santorum, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.
Gingrich has gained 19 points since PPP’s last poll of the race in early October. Also showing momentum are Paul whose support is up 8% and Bachmann whose support is up 5%. Romney has dropped 6 points since then with the other candidates mostly standing in place.
Gingrich’s rise to the top is being fueled by strong support from seniors and the Tea Party. With voters over 65 he’s at 37% leading Romney’s 18% and Paul’s 11% by 19 and 26 points respectively. With Tea Party voters Gingrich is at 35% with Bachmann actually coming in at second with 23%, Paul in third at 14%, and Romney all the way back at just 4%.
Paul’s benefiting from the lack of action on the Democratic side this year. 20% of likely caucus goers are either Democrats or independents and with them he’s leading the way with 28% t0 18% for Gingrich and 13% for Romney and Bachmann. He’s also very strong with younger voters, getting 23% with those under 45 to 21% for Gingrich, 16% for Bachmann, and 15% for Romney.
When PPP polled Iowa for the first time this year in January 57% of voters had a favorable opinion of Romney to 26% with an unfavorable one. Now he’s at only 49/45, representing a 27 point decline in his net favorability over the course of the year. Perhaps most troubling for Romney, only 48% of those who voted for him in 2008 say they’re planning to do so again this year.
DES MOINES REGISTER: Texas Rep. Ron Paul has risen into second place, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has slid to third with just over a month before the Iowa caucuses kick off voting in the presidential nominating process.
Gingrich has support from 25 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers, Paul is at 18 percent and Romney at 16 percent.
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann ties with retired Georgia business executive Herman Cain at 8 percent. The poll was conducted before Cain suspended his candidacy on Saturday. Rounding out the field: Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania at 6 percent each, and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman at 2 percent.