Posts Tagged ‘Gallup’
GALLUP’S BOMBSHELL FINDING: And conclusive proof that this will be a blowout Election for Mitt Romney
I’ve been saying now for months that Mitt Romney will win this by 6+ points. This election will not be close.
Here’s more evidence I’m right.
Gallup has had Mitt at the 50 percent or more mark now for about two weeks. Today, Mitt is up 5.
Rasmussen also has Mitt at 50 percent, now up four points over Obama.
But that’s not the really devastating news for Obama. That’s not what I want to point out here.
The really bad news for Obama and the Dems is hidden in Gallup’s internal numbers.
The metric to focus on is party identification.
I know. Everyone’s focused on the undecided vote. That favors Mitt because undecideds tend to break against the incumbent in Presidential elections by a 2-to-1 margin.
So if Romney is ahead now (which he is), he’ll be more ahead on Election Day.
But that’s not the important news because I don’t think there are many undecided voters.
If you are an undecided voter today, you must be a total moron — or have no interest whatsoever in politics, so probably won’t vote anyway.
The important news is Party ID breakdown.
This little nugget is buried deep in Gallup’s otherwise boring article on its poll titled: “2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008.”
From the headline, it sure doesn’t sound like there’s any news here. I would not expect the basic demographics of the country to change much in four years (about the same percentages of men, women, blacks, Hispanics, whites, Asians, seniors, yoots, etc). So no big deal there.
Why even bother to conduct a poll on all that?
You have to read the entire article and poll to find out what’s really important.
And what’s really important is this BOMBSHELL fact . . .
In 2008 Democrats had a 39-29 (D+10) advantage in hard party ID, and a 54-42 (D+12) advantage when you throw in leaners.
But now Republicans show a 36-35 (R+1) hard party ID advantage, and a 49-46 (R+3) lead when you include leaners.
So, we have a party ID shift here of 11 to 15 points.
This is devastating not just to Obama, but to Democrats down the entire ballot.
Yup, we’re talking victories by the Todd Akins and Richard Mourdocks of the world.
Just about any candidate with an “R” next to his or her name has a great chance to win on November 6th.
Then when you throw in the 10-20 point advantage Romney has among Independents (depending on the poll), we’re looking at a blowout Election of historic proportions against the incumbent President.
In other words, what we are seeing here is the destruction of the Democrat Party by Barack Obama.
But what about Ohio?
I know a lot of you are worried about Ohio. We really haven’t seen any public polls that show Romney ahead. We have a few that show him tied. Most polls have Mitt slightly behind.
Fear not. The metric to focus on here is Romney’s standing among Independents in Ohio.
Figure Republicans and Democrats will turn out in about equal numbers. Heck, give a generous two-point edge to self-identified Dems.
Here’s a chart of recent polls — including all those biased media polls that over-sample Democrats by 6-10 points:
So this presents a clear picture of what we will see in Ohio.
Some Ohio “Early Voting” Data Points . . .
Here’s what’s happening so far with “Early Voting” in Ohio.
220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008 by this point. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago at this point. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.
Republicans always perform much better on Election Day. John McCain would be President today if we only counted votes cast on Election Day. The fact that Republicans and Democrats are now essentially tied in Ohio early voting is very bad news for Obama.
In summary, what we are about to witness is the most lopsided defeat of an incumbent President in an Election since Jimmy Carter. And this election blowout might surpass even that.
So sit back, have a glass of wine, smile, and relax — and enjoy watching Team Obama and the Left descend into total panic and gloom over the next nine days as this reality starts to break through.
The liberal media has made a big deal about President Barack Obama’s spike up in the polls to a 50 percent job approval in the Real Clear Politics average of polls. But the most recent Gallup and Rasmussen polls now have Obama back down to a 46 percent job approval rating.
Obama spiked upward temporarily with his okay speech about Gabrielle Giffords. But seems to have drifted back down to where he’s been for the past year.